WASHINGTON — Second-term U.S. presidents encounter political turbulence, their poll ratings plummet as the public sours. Right?
Wrong.
In my latest Letter from Washington, I lay out who in Washington believes Barack Obama has a chance of actually accomplishing something in his second term and who doesn’t — and why.
(Technically, Mr. Obama has already begun his second term. He was sworn in on January 20 before noon Eastern time, per the Constitution, though the public inauguration is only at noon Monday.)
But the historical record is more nuanced than the conventional wisdom that second terms are doomed to end in failure or scandal.
Over the past 60 years, there have been five re-elected U.S. presidents: Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.
Two fit the conventional notion: Mr. Nixon, whose ratings fell through the floor when he became ensnared in Watergate criminality, was eventually forced to resign. Mr. Bush’s second term failed after his major miscalculation in trying to partially privatize Social Security and his administration’s woeful response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster.
The other two-termers went out on a high, with approval ratings of 60 percent or higher. Even with political setbacks, President Eisenhower maintained his status as an above-the-fray figure that he had acquired since serving as the supreme allied commander in World War II.
The re-elected President Reagan had a rough first couple of years with a flawed new chief of staff, the former Wall Street executive Donald Regan, and the Iran-contra scandal. However, led by his Treasury secretary, Jim Baker, he was able to lead the way to sweeping tax reform. And encouraged by his wife, Nancy, and Secretary of State George Shultz, Mr. Reagan signed a nuclear-arms reduction treaty with the Soviet Union. He was enormously popular when he left office.
So was Bill Clinton in 2001, with a backlash against the political effort by House Republicans to impeach him for lying about an affair. Right before he left office, the Gallup poll reported that President Clinton had a 66 percent approval rating. Within weeks, his popularity plummeted when news surfaced of his final-hours pardon of the tax fugitive Marc Rich. Ever resilient, he came back and today there is no more popular political figure in the United States.
IHT Rendezvous: Obama's Second Term: Not Necessarily Cursed
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IHT Rendezvous: Obama's Second Term: Not Necessarily Cursed
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IHT Rendezvous: Obama's Second Term: Not Necessarily Cursed
